Dolphins Draft Options at QB Still Good

January 28, 2010

With the 15th pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select...well we don't know. The organization doesn't even know who will be available at that spot or whether it's worth trading up or down in the draft. We can pinpoint the positions of highest priority for the Fins and the quarterback spot is clearly one of them.

Mixed reports have some within the Dolphins' organization sticking with Chad Henne, while others aren't throwing their support behind him. The fact is that when there is no consensus as to whether you should keep or trash a signal-caller, you've got a problem at the QB spot.

Given the likelihood of Miami going after a new QB, we've decided to look back into the past decade and see what teams have succeeded in drafting a QB in the mid-first round and beyond. The results provide some hope but should be taken with a grain of salt (since more teams have failed than succeeded at drafting a quality passer).

Top-Tier QBs

There are two highly successful QBs in the league today that were late-first/early-second rounders. We're talking about Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Rodgers was selected by Green Bay with the 24th overall pick (2005), while Brees was the San Diego Chargers' first pick in the second round (2001). Miami -- and any other team without a bonafide QB -- would take these guys in a heartbeat.

The funny thing is, the Fins have a shot at salvaging their own Rodgers or Brees in this year's draft. These two guys were criticized by analysts back in their college days the same way that Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert and other highly touted draft-eligible QBs are today. That shouldn't stop Miami from taking a serious look at the QB talent available.

There is clearly luck involved when a team hits on a franchise QB but Miami hasn't tested their luck in 28 seasons. At least not in the first round. Henne and John Beck were "safe picks" in later rounds. The point remains that playing it safe rarely translates into winning big.

Other Quality QBs

There are other not-so-flashy QBs out there that haven't won a title yet but have elevated their respective teams and may be title-worthy one day. Here's who we're talking about:

• Joe Flacco (2008) - 18th overall, first round
• Matt Schaub (2004) - 90th overall, third round
• Josh Freeman (2009) - 17th overall, first round 
• Kyle Orton (2005) - 106th overall, 4th round
• Ryan Fitzpatrick (2008) - 250th overall, seventh round

Flacco, Schaub and Orton have had good success in the league given their short tenures as starting QBs. On the other hand, Freeman and Fitzpatrick performed well in their first starting gig but don't have nearly enough experience to be labeled great just yet. Nevertheless, these are guys that the Fins wouldn't mind taking snaps for them right now.

As I stated earlier, the success rate for acquiring a very good to great quarterback is not very high in the league. Hence, that's why many teams are constantly looking for their franchise QB every time the draft rolls around.

With that said, there is still hope for Miami to draft their first true heir to Dan Marino this season. He doesn't have to be a future Hall of Famer but a perennial Pro Bowler wouldn't be too bad.  

After Thought: Ben Roethlisberger was drafted as the 11th pick in the 2004 draft - Miami could always try and move up if they find it necessary. 

Over the Weekend: Thoughts on Heat, Dolphins

January 24, 2010

 
Miami Heat: It's Miller Time!

The best part of Saturday's Miami Heat game was not the fact that they ended a four-game losing streak, rather the fact that they won it without Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh on the court. Thank the basketball gods for waking Mike Miller up from his dreary slumber and letting him explode for 32 points (don't forget about his 10 rebounds and three assists).

That finally gave Heat fans a glimpse at why the organization committed $30 million to the 10-year vet. Now Miller needs to produce on a consistent basis, especially when the Big Trio is fully healed. We don't expect him to average six three-pointers and 30+ points from now on but half of that wouldn't be too bad off the bench.

It's hard to think of a better time in the season for the injury bug to hit the Heat. Winning those 21 games out of 22 catapulted the team to the Eastern Conferences top-tier and allowed them to have some room for error. Not to mention, Miami only plays a handful of teams above .500 in the final stretch leading up to the All-Star Break. This is a prime opportunity for the team's bench to get some minutes and find their comfort levels in their respective roles; it only makes the team better.

On a side note from Saturday's game, Mario Chalmers had a decent showing with 10 points and nine assists, replacing Carlos Arroyo in the starting lineup (was Coach Erik Spoelstra simply playing with the lineups or did Chalmers officially earn back his starting role? Hmm.). James Jones found his groove again from behind the arc, contributing 15 points in the game (he shot 2-for-2 from three-point land). It's nice to see bench players step up in the absence of starters. As long as Miami can salvage points off the bench - even if the scoring is coming from different players each game - the team can begin to dominate games on a more consistent basis.

Miami Dolphins: They Beat the Best (Sort of)

Well the Super Bowl teams were finally decided yesterday and the Miami Dolphins can proudly say they beat both of the teams playing the the big game. That's right, they beat the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Adam Kuperstein of NBC-6 Miami said it best on his Twitter account: "I know what [the] Pitt score says, but we all know who really won." Last season the Fins lost to the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints at home in embarrassing fashion.

Now that we're over that fun (pointless) fact of the day, let's move on to something of actual importance: Miami's future at the quarterback position. The team's options at QB got a little interesting yesterday after ESPN reported that Carson Palmer will ask the Cincinnati Bengals for a trade. Palmer averages roughly 234 passing yards per game for his entire career and has a touchdown-interception ratio of 1.54. Matt Hasslebeck was thrown into the pot of potential free agent QBs a few weeks ago that the Fins could consider.

But is that really Miami's answer to an issue that has plagued the franchise since the end of the Dan Marino era? Two above average veterans past the age of 31 each? Dave Hyde of the Miami Herald made the point that Miami must end the 28-year drought of not drafting a QB in the first-round. Fans and analysts have been saying this for quite a while now but the team's urgency to win and satisfy fans may prove to be the trigger point for this suggestion to actually become a reality.

That places Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert on Miami's draft radar with the 15th overall pick. Gabbert has jumped to the top of the QB draft class in the eyes of various analysts but there is no consensus yet. Going for a QB in the first round will be the biggest risk-reward move for the Dolphins, especially since the team does not currently own a second round pick. However, it's been almost three decades since the Dolphins have taken that risk. With this "playing it safe" mindset resonating with the team's recent history of lackluster success, it is clearly time to roll the dice and pray you get lucky.

Positives in Heat's Three-Game Losing Streak

January 18, 2011

 At the twist of an ankle, the Miami Heat's hot streak fizzled in to a cold spell the past three games - leaving the Big Trio banged up and the team's short-term success up in the air. LeBron James and Chris Bosh now share in the pain of ankle injuries while Dwyane Wade clutches his sore knee alongside them. This is not the picture that Heat fans want to see. However, not all is grim in the South Beach these days.

During the Heat's three-game losing streak there were subtle signs of light amidst the darkness of losing. I'm talking about the integrity of this team beyond Wade, James and Bosh. And the first sign has a number 13 on it.

Re-Energized Miami Bench

Mike Miller is finally coming along in his recovery, playing more minutes and contributing in more ways than scoring. Miller began to show his worth as a well-rounded sixth man in the past two games, averaging 6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5 assists in 29.5 minutes of play. That stat line may not pop out at first, and at face value they aren't too impressive, but it is a preview of better things to come.

Fans can now see that Miller is a good passer, above average rebounder and decent ball handler (take into account his 6'8 stature). Give Miller a few more weeks and we will likely see him operating at over 90% of his capacity. At peak performance, Miller will not only head the team's second unit but also greatly benefit Wade, James and/or Bosh when playing alongside any of them.

Eddie House was another positive during Miami's slump. He proved, once again, that he is an absolute spark plug of instant offense off the bench - even when he hadn't played a single minute in almost a month. House averaged 14 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists in the past two games, making Miami's bench look better than it has been painted out to be.

A healthy combo of House and Miller only makes the Heat a more formidable opponent, especially in the playoffs. Just imagine when Udonis Haslem returns from injury, then Erik Spoelstra's got himself three solid, dependable bench players to work with.

Heat Showing Resilience 

Take a look at the worst parts of the past three games and you can find resilience in just about every instance of negativity. Exhibit A: Miami allowed 44 points in the first quarter versus the Los Angeles Clippers. Response: The Heat were resilient enough to battle back within two points in the second half. Exhibit B: The Heat were blown out by 28 points versus the Denver Nuggets. Response: Miami came back and fought a close game against the Chicago Bulls, minus LeBron and partially without Bosh. This team has bounced back in the face of adversity multiple times this season, the only difference this time is the end results were losses.

Offense Not Lacking

The Heat are still proving to have a competitive fire but only mental lapses on defense and healthy starters are missing in the equation. In fact, the team's offense has done well during their three-game skid, averaging 101 points in that span. That means the primary element lacking is defense, which Miami has excelled in for a majority of the season (they're rank second in opponents field goal % and fifth in opponents points per game).

We can expect Miami's staunch defensive ways to return soon - you don't just suddenly become a poor defensive team. Once the coaches and players refocus, this stretch of struggles will become a faint memory. In a tough love kind-of-way, this could actually make Miami a better team in the long run. 

Stephen Ross: Good Intention, Poor Execution

January 13, 2011

Dol-Fans have had their seat belts fastened for quite some time now on this roller coaster ride known as the Miami Dolphins franchise. Even before Wayne Huizenga handed the reigns to Stephen Ross, the Dolphins were constantly climbing and falling. Right now the team is still caught in the midst of a rough ride with Mr. Ross at the helm of the control room.

As the conductor of this roller coaster, Ross has been in charge of its design and operation for three years now. Thus far, this thrill ride has left more fans sick to their stomachs than pumped with excitement. This just means that Ross' execution of his vision has not panned out as planned, but at least his intentions are aimed in the right direction.

The latest controversy spurring from the Dolphins courting of Jim Harbaugh to replace Tony Sparano marked another strike on Ross' list of poorly executed efforts. On that list you can also find the search for public funds to improve the stadium as well as the extra-flashy initiatives to spruce up the stadium environment. Many agree that searching for a coach while one is under contract, asking for tax dollars to make non-essential renovations and mixing star-studded extravagance with gridiron grit are all objectionable moves.

But at the root of these moves there is are intentions that most of us can appreciate. An intent to improve the team by seeking a high-profile coach. An intent to make the stadium a more comfortable, enjoyable and engaged destination. An intent to add excitement beyond the product on the field.

While theory has not translated into practice for Ross and the Dolphins, there still seems to be light at the end of the tunnel.

Ross has taken risks and made bold moves by acquiring Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby. Beyond that, he understands the fans' collective frustration with the offense and has openly voiced a desire to open up the playbook. In his own words:

“I’ve told Tony [Sparano] that to me, I want an aggressive, creative [offense] not playing just to keep it close, where people really are a little more unpredictable...So I think I look for a different brand, seeing the Dolphins how fans want to see it, and how we win, going downfield, in the days of Dan Marino, the days we all want to go back to.”

In other words, this guy has the right ideas in mind and just hasn't been able to implement them properly. In football, it's not the thought that counts but the results you produce. Ross' ability to make his good intentions a reality in Miami will ultimately determine whether he steers Miami onto the joyride they've longed for decades or leaves Dol-Fans on this track toward another forgetful era. 

Dolphins Offensive Coordinator Buzz

January 10, 2011
Update: January 11, 2011 @ 3:25 AM

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports that Miami Dolphin's QB Coach David Lee will be "leaving the turmoil to take lucrative job as Ole Miss offensive coordinator." That eliminates Lee as Miami's next offensive coordinator. In related news, ESPN Insider Tim Kavanagh tossed out the name of a former NFL coach into the pot of potential Dolphin OCs - Jim Fassel.

* * *

Brandon Marshall's presence in (what was supposed to be) a revamped Miami Dolphins offense, proved to be a missed opportunity in 2010. But the brunt of this mishap can be placed on Offensive Coordinator Dan Henning. Henning failed to orchestrate play calls that enhanced Miami's passing game and built on their running game, leaving the Dolphins to suffer as a result. In 2010, the Fins ranked 21st in total offense (a minor drop from 17th in 2009) and 16th in passing (a minor step up from 20th in 2009). Lucky for Dol-Fans, things are set to change as Henning won't be sitting up in a Dolphins booth next season after reports of an impending retirement.

So the search for a new OC begins!

An in-house option for Miami is Quarterback Coach David Lee - the man who proposed the Widcat scheme to Tony Sparano in 2008. Lee is seen as an innovator on offense and somewhat of a risk-taker (as seen with his bold suggestion to add the Wildcat). Promoting Lee to OC would benefit a Miami offense that has been lackluster and simply boring for large stretches of games in recent years. Not to mention, his experience with QBs would likely improve the Dolphins' passing game from a scheme standpoint. However, with the Chad Henne era seemingly over and the QB position in flux, improving the passing game may prove to be more challenging from a practical standpoint.    

As for the outside options, one notable name that has been a part of speculation is ex-Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels. This name may be a flashy, edgy (whatever you want to call it) option but it seems to make very little sense. First off, McDaniels was a driving force in Mike Nolan's departure from Denver as well as Marshall's trade to Miami. Bringing him in would probably create tension in the organization, unless McDaniels wishes to mend those wounds. Another point against a McDaniels-to-Miami deal is the recent OC opening in Kansas City after reports that Charlie Weis will leave to the University of Florida. McDaniels knows Chiefs' General Manager Scott Pioli from their time together in New England and could be decide to join forces with him once again. In sum, the chances seem slim for the Dolphins to go this route.

Beyond that, The Palm Beach Post has provided an in-depth list of possible suitors for Miami's OC job opening. If you're interested, you can take a look at the full story here. But to give you a glimpse at some of the names mentioned, here's a few of them:

• Maurice Carthon
• Bill Musgrave
• Chris Palmer
• Paul Chudzinski

Hot Points: Heat Still Have Room to Grow

January 6, 2011

 

The Miami Heat have won 19 of their last 20 games and stand at 28-9 for the season. However, the team still has room to improve despite their recent success. Here are today's hot points:

The Real Mike Miller

• Mike Miller still has not found his groove with the team and has played only about eight minutes per game this season.
• In Miller's six games played, he has only made one field goal on 13 attempts but is a career 46% shooter. 
• Once Miller eases into the rotation he will attempt more shots - most of which will be wide open - and begin to make an impact on Miami's offense.

Haslem Set to Return

• Udonis Haslem recently announced that he wants to return by late March, early April, which would add more depth the the Heat front court. 
• Haslem was averaging eight points and eight rebounds this season (13 games) before falling to a foot injury.
• Currently, Miami's front court back-ups (Juwan Howard, Joel Anthony and Erick Dampier) are not averaging Haslem's numbers combined.
• The Heat should only improve once Haslem returns to the line up, both statistically and physically. 

Big Three Still Growing

• Although Dwyane Wade and LeBron James shared Eastern Conference Player of the Month Awards for December, they, along with Chris Bosh, have not reached their peak potential together. 
• James is averaging a career worst in turnovers (3.65), which means he has not fully adjusted to his new team yet. 
• Although Wade has James to assume the play-maker role at times his assist numbers are at a career-low (4.2); they could slightly improve once reliable scoring options like Miller and Haslem return.
• Bosh is performing up-to-par with Miami's expectations (averaging 18.4 points and 8.2 rebounds) but could benefit from the steady improvement of his two star teammates and a healthy Miller and Haslem.

Miami Dolphins' 2011 Quarterback Prospects

January 2, 2011

After a season that left more questions than answers, the Miami Dolphins can officially look forward to finding solutions to their many personnel problems. Most importantly, the Fins can now focus on addressing arguably the most essential part of their team: the quarterback position. 

Chad Henne, while he has only played two seasons worth of football and has been misguided by a questionable offensive game plan, did not prove that he can be a consistent and resilient leader for the Dolphins. And in an era where young QBs are proving their worth in the league, Henne has been dealt a losing hand in a results-oriented industry.

Thus, we look at Miami's options in the upcoming NFL draft and analyze what other teams ahead of the Fins in the draft order may need QBs too. Beyond that, we also will consider their options in free agency and the trade market. In essence, we are determining what Miami's QB prospects are in 2011. 

Teams Ahead of The Dolphins
First off, Miami will select 15th in the 2011 NFL Draft, leaving 14 teams to worry about before the Dolphins are on the clock. Let's take a look at the likelihood each of those teams have at drafting a QB.

1. Carolina Panthers

• Even though they drafted Jimmy Clausen in the second round last season, many analysts argue that QB Andrew Luck is too good to pass up on with the #1 overall pick.
• With that said, there's a 99% chance Carolina goes with Luck.

2. Denver Broncos

• Highly unlikely to go for a QB in the first with Kyle Orton's proven record and Tim Tebow's emergence. 

3. Buffalo Bills

• Somewhat unlikely to go for a QB after a better-than-expected season from Ryan Fitzpatrick.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

• It seems that Carson Palmer's time in Cincy is just about up, so a change at QB seems very likely.

5. Arizona Cardinals 

• Perhaps the team that needs a QB upgrade the most after poor efforts from Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson.
• The likelihood meter is almost maxed out in Arizona.

6. Cleveland Browns

• Colt McCoy proved to be a potential starter this season and has probably given the Browns enough confidence to stick with him; low likelihood of drafting a QB here.

7. San Francisco 49ers

• With no consistent play from the Smiths (Alex and Troy), the Niners are highly likely to make a QB change. 

8. Tennessee Titans

• Although Vince Young did not impress, the Titans owner seems to like his QB enough to keep him around.
• Low likelihood for a new rookie QB in Tennessee

9. Dallas Cowboys

• Tony Romo is still the man in Dallas.  
• No need for the 'Boys to draft a QB in the first round. 

10. Washington Redskins

• Donovan McNabb's future is extremely uncertain in DC amidst the ongoing feuds between Mike Shanahan and the QB.
• That makes the likelihood meter fairly high in the nation's capital.  

11. Houston Texans

• Matt Schaub is still very solid.
• Zero chance of Houston going QB in the first round.

12. Minnesota Vikings

• Brett Favre may finally be retiring (or just setting the media up again) but Joe Webb showed some bright spots in Minny's final few games; bright enough to deserve a shot next season.
• The Vikings have bigger holes to fill than at QB, so they aren't likely to draft a QB.

13. Detroit Lions 

• Matthew Stafford is their franchise QB.
• No chance Detroit wastes the first rounder on a position they have filled pretty well.

14. St. Louis Rams

• Sam Bradford was the number one overall pick last season and has played up to expectations.
• No need at all to draft another QB.

Miami's Outlook
Given the brief overview of the teams drafting ahead of Miami, there are about 4-5 teams that will seriously consider selecting a QB with their first round picks. That's not good news for the Fins, given the thin QB market in this year's draft class.

The top QBs include the aforementioned Luck, Ryan Mallet, Jake Locker and Cam Newton. If all of those guys are off the board by the 15th pick, Miami will have less appealing prospects to choose from, such as Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder and Ricky Stanzi - all of which are probably not worth first round picks.

Other options at QB for the Dolphins include signing a free agent or trading for someone. Names like Matt Hasslebeck have been thrown out there as short-term options in the free agent market. That won't go over well with Dol-Fans as they've seen what worn-out veterans bring to the table - can you say Trent Green and Daunte Culpepper? As for the trade market, players like Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb and Vince Young have emerged as possible replacements to Henne.

In all, there is still plenty of uncertainty in South Florida as to who will be Miami's offensive leader next season. Dol-Fans can only hope the franchise makes some strong offseason moves just as they did in 2010.